hidflect retweeted
Tech got COOKED again yesterday, and our shorts are working.
CoreWeave is down 40% since we shorted it at $107 and Astera Labs is down 31% from $433. We pressed both again right after our last subscriber call, because I think this trade has a lot further to go.
On that call I also explained why: chips and data centers are capital-intensive businesses, and capital-intensive booms tend to end the way shipping booms do. Everyone builds at once, and the debt and depreciation are still sitting there long after the demand fades. The clip above is that part of the call.
Across the whole book, 22 of our 24 scored calls are winners. Our longs are up 30.3% on average and our shorts are down 38.1%, a 68.4% spread (121% annualized).
We're doing another live call THIS SUNDAY, November 1, at 10 AM ET, where I'll walk Noble Update subscribers through where I think this market goes into year-end and the moves we're lining up for it, then take your questions live.
Our last one was terrific, and I hope to see you on this one too!
We thrive in markets like these, and my goal is to help you MAKE MONEY without wasting your time on fancy stories.
The live call and the full replay are for paid subscribers.
The Zoom meeting details are below:
georgenoble.substack.com/p/a…
hidflect retweeted
Nadella is pissed off at being called out by the Trump administration, this is his retaliation.
It shows how little upper management cares about keeping people. It's like hey, if you want to leave, go ahead.
Which flies in the face of statements asserting any shortage of tech workers.
If there was a shortage of tech workers, they would be selective, performance based (but more like boot-licker based, but hey its referral hiring only right now, so what else could we expect?).
And the strategic reason why they did a "voluntary" buyout, is that it might (hope against reality) satisfy the ability of the company to backfill with h-1b, without layoff.
When a company does a mass layoff, there is a 90-day window where they cannot backfill with H-1b.
So the timeline would probably look like this:
- Do the voluntary layoffs now
- Do the involuntary layoffs in early January, maybe with some penalty for not taking the buyout.
- Apply for the H-1b visas in April (clearing the 90-day wait period)
It is a standard playbook and is why so many layoffs in tech occur in January.
You can bet the layoffs coming to Microsoft in January will just be a shotgun layoff (crude excisement of departments). Some will be entire departments. Some will see half their people gone, the other half training their H-1b or Overseas replacements. This will also not be performanced based, no need to work extra hard for Microsoft, do your work, but don't expect that it will matter.
That is how it will play out.
Satya Nadella is following Stalin's playbook.
He doesn't have any original ideas, so he is gutting everything, except Azure, and filling it with H-1b workers that will keep their mouths shut. And moving all work to India.
He is trying to push crappy AI (product of Mustafa Suleyman) in everything. It is failing badly, and he is doubling down. Because in the process he can kill off all the internal competition to his personal fame with the Microsoft board.
Windows, Xbox, and MS365 are not Satya Nadella led projects, yet all 3 are immensely profitable.
Every Microsoft product other than Azure (think Data Centers) is being gutted.
Nadella is popular with the board because he headed Azure, that's his claim to fame inside Microsoft. Why not put it in relief by gutting everything else (Stalin's playbook).
And Nadella is making sure, just like Stalin before him, that no one else can show him up with a better product performance.
Hence gut all the other businesses, that Nadella had nothing to do with.
And those other products are consumer facing. XBox, MS365, and Microsoft Windows are all profitable products. And they could stick around for decades making money. Just one problem, Nadella had nothing to do with them.
hidflect retweeted
BREAKING: ServiceNow stock, $NOW, collapses nearly -20% after posting weaker than expected Q3 earnings.
hidflect retweeted
BREAKING: Alphabet stock, $GOOGL, falls over -8% after posting weaker than expected earnings.
hidflect retweeted
$400 billion has been wiped out from $META market cap in the last 14 days as the stock crashes 20%, officially entering bear market territory
Reasons:
1. Meta spent $34.9 billion in one quarter, and expects to spend $135 billion to $145 billion in 2026
2. Its cash after spending turned negative at $1.16 billion, against positive $11.2 billion a year earlier
3. Its debt rose to $80.9 billion, from $58.7 billion at the end of 2025
4. Profit from operations fell to 20% of revenue, from 40%
5. Meta launched a $35 billion stock sale on Monday to fund AI spending
6. It plans to sell up to $60 billion more in new non-voting shares starting in 2027
This is one of the “Magnificent 7” we are talking about
hidflect retweeted
$AAPL iPhone 18 Pro sales data just released 5 mins ago.
Japan showed a 27% drop in sales vs the 17 pro last year.
Ratings agencies are covering up some dark sht.
Moody's sees positive shift in Japan's growth, resilience remains key test reut.rs/4sv6QPZ
hidflect retweeted
Prices in Osaka and Bangkok are ~same despite 4x wage difference.
I knew Japan was cheap these days but WOW.
And Japan has all the standard First World attributes like drinkable tap water, clean air, safe roads.
Explains why everyone and their dog are going to Japan in 2026.
🤖 Made with AI
hidflect retweeted
Citing a source, a South Korean journalist specializing in the display industry reported on the cracking issue affecting Apple’s iPhone Duo: “The problem is occurring in the same area, and the cause appears to be a flaw in Apple’s hinge design. Apple will likely have no choice but to redesign the hinge.”
The report added: “Since the product is already being manufactured, Apple will need to address the defect while keeping design changes to a minimum, such as by reducing the number of hinge components.”
zdnet.co.kr/view/?no=2026102…
One unintended consequence of Super is that it forces $_Billions into ASX Blue Chips who can sit back and coast, never innovating or expanding, safe and secure in the knowledge that demand for their stock is never ending. CBA, COL, BHP, NAB etc.
iPhone Duo Owners Report Devices Breaking Worldwide as Fears Grow Over Critical Design Flaw gadgetreview.com/iphone-duo-…
hidflect retweeted
没想到，上海的经济已经差到这种程度了。
昨晚跟我六个大学同学一块吃饭，结果四个失业了，还有一个是灵活就业。
原本以为就是大家聚在一起吐吐槽，结果刚落座，气氛就不对。
以前聚会都是抢着扫码点硬菜，今天硬是拿着手机算了半天团购券。没一个人主动提“工作”这俩字，全在聊哪家超市的鸡蛋打折，或者谁家的孩子现在连早教班都退了。
那个灵活就业的兄弟，以前是个高级总监，背着两万多的房贷，现在每天雷打不动去图书馆假装上班，连杯瑞幸都不敢买，保温杯里灌满免费开水。
剩下四个失业的，有两个连社保都断了，说现在只能指望老家父母接济一点；另外一个说他连星巴克都不敢去了，天天去街道办的免费阅览室投简历。
还有个以前做地产的，前两天刚把车卖了，偷偷去跑网约车，就怕碰到熟人。
最让我破防的，是最后结账的时候。以前全抢着买单，今天大家默契地拉了个群收款。
有个老哥还悄悄私信我，说微信里钱不够，问我能不能先帮他垫上，发了工资立马还
Reminds me of Japan in the 2000's.
Fuck this Chinese job market.
Young people are getting absolutely fucked. No real opportunities, shit pay that barely covers rent, and you're expected to grind 996 like a dog. Overtime is mandatory, weekends are optional, and if you complain you get replaced by the next desperate grad.
Everyone's killing each other for scraps. Involution is out of control — 300 people fighting for one mediocre position, then the winner gets paid like shit and worked to death. Graduates with master's degrees delivering food or sitting on their parents' couch.
Companies treat you like disposable labor. No raises, no promotions, just more work and the constant threat of being laid off. The economy's trash, private sector is dying, and the only "stable" path is fighting millions for a government job that might not even exist by the time you get it.
It's a fucking meat grinder. Opportunity? What opportunity. Just endless competition and poverty wages.
This is not new. Gold always sells off in a slump. It's the coming debt crisis where it will shine...
HSBC: gold is a source of cash in a sell-off.
HSBC Asset Management strategists say gold has failed as a short-term hedge during stock sell-offs, because margin calls force leveraged holders to sell bullion.
They still see a long-term case built on currency debasement, central bank diversification and geopolitical fragmentation.
hidflect retweeted
It’s weird how normalized this is.
If a bunch of random dudes with giant beards and silly hats and black clothes just showed up out of nowhere one day and started ordering us to start foreign wars, we would all flip out, like who the fuck are these guys?
