hidflect retweeted
Tech got COOKED again yesterday, and our shorts are working.
CoreWeave is down 40% since we shorted it at $107 and Astera Labs is down 31% from $433. We pressed both again right after our last subscriber call, because I think this trade has a lot further to go.
On that call I also explained why: chips and data centers are capital-intensive businesses, and capital-intensive booms tend to end the way shipping booms do. Everyone builds at once, and the debt and depreciation are still sitting there long after the demand fades. The clip above is that part of the call.
Across the whole book, 22 of our 24 scored calls are winners. Our longs are up 30.3% on average and our shorts are down 38.1%, a 68.4% spread (121% annualized).
We're doing another live call THIS SUNDAY, November 1, at 10 AM ET, where I'll walk Noble Update subscribers through where I think this market goes into year-end and the moves we're lining up for it, then take your questions live.
Our last one was terrific, and I hope to see you on this one too!
We thrive in markets like these, and my goal is to help you MAKE MONEY without wasting your time on fancy stories.
The live call and the full replay are for paid subscribers.
The Zoom meeting details are below:
georgenoble.substack.com/p/a…
hidflect retweeted
Nadella is pissed off at being called out by the Trump administration, this is his retaliation.
It shows how little upper management cares about keeping people. It's like hey, if you want to leave, go ahead.
Which flies in the face of statements asserting any shortage of tech workers.
If there was a shortage of tech workers, they would be selective, performance based (but more like boot-licker based, but hey its referral hiring only right now, so what else could we expect?).
And the strategic reason why they did a "voluntary" buyout, is that it might (hope against reality) satisfy the ability of the company to backfill with h-1b, without layoff.
When a company does a mass layoff, there is a 90-day window where they cannot backfill with H-1b.
So the timeline would probably look like this:
- Do the voluntary layoffs now
- Do the involuntary layoffs in early January, maybe with some penalty for not taking the buyout.
- Apply for the H-1b visas in April (clearing the 90-day wait period)
It is a standard playbook and is why so many layoffs in tech occur in January.
You can bet the layoffs coming to Microsoft in January will just be a shotgun layoff (crude excisement of departments). Some will be entire departments. Some will see half their people gone, the other half training their H-1b or Overseas replacements. This will also not be performanced based, no need to work extra hard for Microsoft, do your work, but don't expect that it will matter.
That is how it will play out.
Satya Nadella is following Stalin's playbook.
He doesn't have any original ideas, so he is gutting everything, except Azure, and filling it with H-1b workers that will keep their mouths shut. And moving all work to India.
He is trying to push crappy AI (product of Mustafa Suleyman) in everything. It is failing badly, and he is doubling down. Because in the process he can kill off all the internal competition to his personal fame with the Microsoft board.
Windows, Xbox, and MS365 are not Satya Nadella led projects, yet all 3 are immensely profitable.
Every Microsoft product other than Azure (think Data Centers) is being gutted.
Nadella is popular with the board because he headed Azure, that's his claim to fame inside Microsoft. Why not put it in relief by gutting everything else (Stalin's playbook).
And Nadella is making sure, just like Stalin before him, that no one else can show him up with a better product performance.
Hence gut all the other businesses, that Nadella had nothing to do with.
And those other products are consumer facing. XBox, MS365, and Microsoft Windows are all profitable products. And they could stick around for decades making money. Just one problem, Nadella had nothing to do with them.
hidflect retweeted
BREAKING: ServiceNow stock, $NOW, collapses nearly -20% after posting weaker than expected Q3 earnings.
hidflect retweeted
BREAKING: Alphabet stock, $GOOGL, falls over -8% after posting weaker than expected earnings.
hidflect retweeted
$400 billion has been wiped out from $META market cap in the last 14 days as the stock crashes 20%, officially entering bear market territory
Reasons:
1. Meta spent $34.9 billion in one quarter, and expects to spend $135 billion to $145 billion in 2026
2. Its cash after spending turned negative at $1.16 billion, against positive $11.2 billion a year earlier
3. Its debt rose to $80.9 billion, from $58.7 billion at the end of 2025
4. Profit from operations fell to 20% of revenue, from 40%
5. Meta launched a $35 billion stock sale on Monday to fund AI spending
6. It plans to sell up to $60 billion more in new non-voting shares starting in 2027
This is one of the “Magnificent 7” we are talking about
hidflect retweeted
$AAPL iPhone 18 Pro sales data just released 5 mins ago.
Japan showed a 27% drop in sales vs the 17 pro last year.
Ratings agencies are covering up some dark sht.
Moody's sees positive shift in Japan's growth, resilience remains key test reut.rs/4sv6QPZ
hidflect retweeted
Prices in Osaka and Bangkok are ~same despite 4x wage difference.
I knew Japan was cheap these days but WOW.
And Japan has all the standard First World attributes like drinkable tap water, clean air, safe roads.
Explains why everyone and their dog are going to Japan in 2026.
🤖 Made with AI
hidflect retweeted
Citing a source, a South Korean journalist specializing in the display industry reported on the cracking issue affecting Apple’s iPhone Duo: “The problem is occurring in the same area, and the cause appears to be a flaw in Apple’s hinge design. Apple will likely have no choice but to redesign the hinge.”
The report added: “Since the product is already being manufactured, Apple will need to address the defect while keeping design changes to a minimum, such as by reducing the number of hinge components.”
zdnet.co.kr/view/?no=2026102…
hidflect retweeted
没想到，上海的经济已经差到这种程度了。
昨晚跟我六个大学同学一块吃饭，结果四个失业了，还有一个是灵活就业。
原本以为就是大家聚在一起吐吐槽，结果刚落座，气氛就不对。
以前聚会都是抢着扫码点硬菜，今天硬是拿着手机算了半天团购券。没一个人主动提“工作”这俩字，全在聊哪家超市的鸡蛋打折，或者谁家的孩子现在连早教班都退了。
那个灵活就业的兄弟，以前是个高级总监，背着两万多的房贷，现在每天雷打不动去图书馆假装上班，连杯瑞幸都不敢买，保温杯里灌满免费开水。
剩下四个失业的，有两个连社保都断了，说现在只能指望老家父母接济一点；另外一个说他连星巴克都不敢去了，天天去街道办的免费阅览室投简历。
还有个以前做地产的，前两天刚把车卖了，偷偷去跑网约车，就怕碰到熟人。
最让我破防的，是最后结账的时候。以前全抢着买单，今天大家默契地拉了个群收款。
有个老哥还悄悄私信我，说微信里钱不够，问我能不能先帮他垫上，发了工资立马还
hidflect retweeted
It’s weird how normalized this is.
If a bunch of random dudes with giant beards and silly hats and black clothes just showed up out of nowhere one day and started ordering us to start foreign wars, we would all flip out, like who the fuck are these guys?
hidflect retweeted
black october just got worse. a japanese company lost 27,000 servers and it’s not even the scariest part
GMO Internet runs a cloud service called Onamae Desktop, mostly used by forex traders running automated trading bots
hackers broke in, installed malware across up to 26,739 servers, stole trading credentials and started making unauthorized trades on people’s accounts
not one broker. over 70 different securities and forex firms across japan and internationally. people woke up to trades they never made, money moving they never authorized
OANDA Japan froze customer withdrawals. GMO refused to pay the ransom, permanently shut down the entire service, and did something nobody expected
they asked the japanese government to use brand new active cyber defense powers, literally military-grade authority that just went into effect october 1st, to trace and neutralize the attackers’ infrastructure. the government can now legally hack back
the technical details from the attacker’s own site are terrifying. GMO configured their VPS network using Active Directory, something you should never do on shared hosting
every server had admin credentials. and the RDP files customers used to connect? drive redirect was enabled by default, meaning the moment you connected to your VPS, your entire local PC was shared with the server
hackers didn’t just own the servers. they had a direct path into every customer’s personal computer. they extracted data, installed backdoors. customers were exposed like this for over 7 years
27,000 servers. 70+ brokers. unauthorized trades. personal computers backdoored. a company begging its government to go to cyber war
october isn’t slowing down
hidflect retweeted
Thanks my friend.
$CRWV is also a zero.
hidflect retweeted
notice..
> Delta is blocking AI agents from booking flights
> JPMorgan Chase and Charles Schwab block agents from accessing accounts
> Yelp requires paid data licensing for agents
> Amazon has blocked Grok bot and other shopping agents.
the internet is starting to block AI agents that were supposed to do everything for us
hidflect retweeted
Norway has removed all of its $2tn Investment Fund from Israel linked banks, as it continues its policy of BDS against Israel.
Well done Norway.
hidflect retweeted
-11%.
German industrial output in 2025 vs 2015, per Eurostat data worked up by Berliner Zeitung.
Same ten years, the neighbours:
Poland +54%
Denmark +48%
Switzerland +36%
Belgium +24%
Austria +23%
The paper notes the slide began before 2022 and got much worse after. You know what changed in 2022.
This week Berlin hosted its own "Invest in Germany" summit. On day one, Roche put all future investment decisions in Germany on hold. Its Germany head: "political decisions have recently destroyed a great deal of trust."
Siemens CEO Roland Busch, next to the economy minister: companies will "simply invest elsewhere."
And ten-year mortgage rates are near 4.5%, highest since 2009, per Interhyp.
Europe's biggest economy, slowly turning into a museum of what it used to make.
