Why Israel is saved for last If you want to understand why Iran has not yet launched its largest direct attack on Israel, look at the sequence. The point is not that the conflict is imaginary or that Iran cannot respond. The point is that Iran is trying to weaken the forces that could strike it and the defenses that could blunt a later attack. The first targets, in this view, are the American bases around the Gulf. They are closer to Iran than Israel and could support an attack without the long flight and refueling routes Israeli aircraft would need. Iran has reason to put pressure on those bases first, limiting the military support available to Washington and its partners. Then comes the fight against air defenses. Iran can launch drones and missiles that cost far less than the interceptors used to stop them. If defenders have to keep firing expensive missiles at waves of cheaper weapons, their supplies shrink. Radar and other systems can be damaged, too. The purpose is to make Israel’s defenses less capable before a larger attack begins. The sea is another pressure point. Iran can threaten American naval forces and use its position near the Strait of Hormuz to put shipping at risk. Disruption there would carry the conflict into the world economy, raising the cost of keeping military operations going and putting pressure on countries that depend on energy moving through the region. Only after that groundwork, I believe, would Iran turn to a major attack on Israel. Iran’s mountains and underground facilities make it difficult to defeat through airstrikes alone. The United States and Israel also face limits in supplies, logistics and the number of defensive missiles they can draw on. If those limits deepen, Israel could face a major assault with fewer interceptors and less support than it has now That is the logic behind saving Israel for last: weaken nearby American bases, drain the air defenses, put pressure on naval forces and shipping, and then attack when the balance has shifted. The conflict, in this view, is likely to resume and widen. Haifa is among the targets I believe should be struck. The timing depends on how much Iran can reduce its opponents’ capacity before the next stage begins