🦔Anthropic’s full IPO filing is out, and it plans to list on Nasdaq as ANT. Revenue hit $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026, up from $1.2 billion a year earlier, and the business brought in $3.9 billion more cash than it spent running itself. The $80.7 billion headline loss is almost entirely accounting on its convertible notes, which turn into stock at the IPO. My Take Anthropic grew fast, and a lot of that growth runs on money from the companies selling it chips and cloud capacity. It has raised $141 billion so far, and Google, Amazon and Broadcom have another $77 billion lined up, mostly tied to Anthropic using more of their compute. Even the positive cash flow came partly from paying those suppliers later. Suppliers lending a customer the money to keep buying from them is the same setup Nvidia runs with CoreWeave. And most of the revenue comes from usage instead of long contracts. About 80% is pay-as-you-go, and the filing admits many top customers can cut spending at any time. This half also lined up with companies pushing staff to rack up AI usage, right before corporate budget reviews. (Earlier reporting on the draft put compute commitments at $518 billion or more. The public filing leaves that number blank.) Public buyers barely get a vote. The founders keep 50.1% and a trust picks most of the board. I expect a hot first day and a much harder 2027, once finance teams review their AI budgets and usage growth slows. Hedgie🤗

7. "The goal, Zuckerberg said, is to create 'a large-scale Muse network' where billions of Muse agents work together to get more done for people and businesses."

"Meta Platforms unveiled a plan to raise up to $95 billion in waves of stock offerings, as the company embarks on a cash-raising spree to fund its massive investments in artificial-intelligence infrastructure." wsj.com/tech/ai/meta-plans-3… #MetaPlatforms #Muse #SuperintelligenceLabs

#macro #California #thread I conclude California citrus and agriculture have reached a not-great tipping point. This is very bad news for the United States and the world. Deregulation would help a lot... but it won't happen. Expect fruit to cost 2x to 3x in 2027. /f

Financial regulation like Basel 1-2-3 and modern central banking as applied by Greenspan , Bernanke , Yellen & Powell created an even greater risk than they sought to mitigate : it deindustrialised the US ( and the entire west ) to the point where it can no longer reliably produce the goods required to defend itself. The idea that a functional, sovereign state can sustain itself by reducing its productive capacity to a services economy, reliant on asset-inflated wealth and debt-fuelled consumption, was the great economic delusion of the 1990s. The inevitable result is a financial economy increasingly disconnected from the material economy that underpins it, where asset prices rise, private debt expands and paper wealth accumulates while the industrial capacity required to manufacture the physical goods on which national prosperity and security depend , steadily erodes toward existential doubt . Eventually, your geopolitical rival is not merely producing more cheaply ; it is manufacturing the machinery, electronics, materials, components and defence systems that you can no longer produce yourself. You become financially wealthy but materially dependent, capable of financing your own defence in theory but incapable of manufacturing it in practice. A nation that cannot manufacture the material foundations of its own security is not truly sovereign; it is dependent on the continued willingness of others to supply the means of its survival. So called central banking independence was used to channel workers wages into a fully financialized bankers economy that literally can’t produce the goods it needs to defend itself or remain independent .

☘️Quinn Insurance: Travelers, Grant Thornton, Simon Sheaf, EMB and the €400 million actuarial controversy☘️ 🔹What an extraordinary spectacle of professional oversight, conflicting actuarial assessments and unanswered questions. 🔹Quinn Insurance had PwC as auditor, Milliman as actuarial adviser and the Central Bank as regulator. 🔹Yet, following administration in March 2010, EMB somehow identified an alleged €380–€400 million reserving shortfall, fundamentally challenging Quinn’s historical profitability. 🔹Now follow the professional and commercial connections. 🔹Simon Sheaf was formerly Chief Actuary of Travelers Insurance, a Quinn competitor. 🔹He joined Grant Thornton in 2006. Following Quinn’s administration, Sheaf established its actuarial team and became its de facto Chief Actuary and Chief Underwriting Officer. 🔹His published professional account describes responsibility for all aspects of actuarial work. 🔹Grant Thornton’s administrators commissioned EMB to examine Quinn’s reserves. 🔹EMB produced the dramatic reserving assessment - missed by other advisers & regulator (who was running the illegal Anglo share support scheme draining Quinn Group & potentially propping up CFD providers - at least the ones who had not hedged); 🔹Meanwhile, Travelers, Sheaf’s former employer, entered an arrangement to provide professional indemnity cover to former Quinn policyholders. Clever. 🔹Travelers was also reportedly shortlisted as a prospective purchaser of Quinn Insurance. 🔹Consider that sequence. 🔹A former Chief Actuary of a competitor assumes senior actuarial responsibilities within a competitor insurer under administration. 🔹The administrators commission an external actuarial firm whose assessment dramatically alters the picture of that insurer’s historical financial condition. 🔹The competitor takes on distressed insurers’ policyholders and reportedly considers acquiring the distressed business. 🔹And what of the original professional gatekeepers? 🔹The Central Bank already knew of significant differences between Milliman’s and PwC’s reserving estimates before administration. 🔹EMB subsequently produced a vastly greater alleged deficiency. 🔹Mazars later conducted a retrospective assessment of earlier years, supporting professional-negligence allegations against PwC 🔹In Quinn Insurance v PwC [2019] IESC 13, the Supreme Court required the administrators to provide proper particulars explaining why the original reserve calculations were allegedly wrong. 🔹The €900 million claim against PwC eventually settled for a reported €53 million in 2022, without a published judicial determination of the underlying actuarial dispute. 🔹So who was watching the professional watchdogs? 🔹Who assessed Sheaf’s previous relationship with Travelers that hoovered up Quinn business? 🔹What role did he play in supplying, reviewing or approving the data and assumptions underlying EMB’s assessment? 🔹Who independently tested EMB’s methodology? 🔹Were EMB’s, Milliman’s, PwC’s and Mazars’ competing calculations ever comprehensively reconciled? 🔹Where are the conflict declarations and contemporaneous working papers? 🔹How can an insurer’s historical profitability be so dramatically reassessed, with enormous consequences for employees, policyholders, creditors and taxpayers, without a publicly accessible, independently adjudicated reconciliation of the competing actuarial assessments? 🔹The public is entitled to ask whether the professional independence, methodology and evidential foundations of these consequential assessments were subjected to adequate scrutiny. 🔹Reconcile the reserves. 🔹Sixteen years later, professional accountability should mean something more than asking the public to take the experts’ word for it, particularly given the overlapping conflicting professional engagements.

JetBlue is on the verge of bankruptcy, after a bunch of European airlines went under earlier this year. Spirit also liquidated. The industry is in crisis, only a few big airlines are profitable. Gotta re-regulate! finance.yahoo.com/economy/ar…

Trump swaggered into Georgia right before the midterms, breathlessly announcing a huge new Audi factory, a massive win for the state he claimed. Here's the receipt: Audi had absolutely no such announcement, no plans to build a plant in Georgia, and no knowledge of this supposed commitment. This wasn't just campaign exaggeration; it was a bald-faced fabrication, invented out of thin air just days before an election, banking on voters not checking if a major international corporation actually agreed to a multi-billion dollar investment during a political rally. It perfectly illustrates how quickly reality gets benched for a headline grab, promising prosperity that only exists in a speech bubble, all while the people who supposedly value "truth" never question the actual facts. thehill.com/homenews/state-w…

Seeing my own usage and spend on AI go exponential over the last 3 months while the AI infrastructure stocks are all down 20% or more Either I am the outlier, or the market narrative is clearly broken. The revenue for the models are only going up from here, not down