Director Institute for Financial Transparency Author of Transparency Games RT not endorsement

Joined February 2011
My statements about transparency can be summarized as: In the presence of transparency, buyer and seller can Trust, but Verify the stories told by the issuer/Wall Street. They have the info they need to assess the risk/reward/value of a security. Their independent assessments are close enough so they are willing to engage in a trade without any governmental assistance even during a financial crisis. Worth repeating: trading in markets with transparency doesn't freeze. In the presence of opacity, buyers and sellers cannot Trust, but Verify the valuation stories told by the issuer/Wall Street. When the valuation story told by Wall Street is called into doubt, buyer and seller assessments can be so far apart no trade is possible and the market freezes. Government intervention is required to "unfreeze" the market. Perhaps more importantly, to the extent owners of opaque securities can, they "run" to get their money back when the valuation story is called into doubt. This is true for all opaque securities. These observations find their theoretical support in the Information Matrix. The Information Matrix underlies 100% of finance and most economic theories. These theories don't state their assumption trades happen in the "Perfect Information" quadrant - perfect information here being buyer and seller have the necessary info they need to know what they own. instituteforfinancialtranspa…
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Richard Field retweeted
Houthis will keep striking Saudi energy infrastructure until they get what they want.....
NOW: The Saudi Coalition spokesman announces that (without early warning alerts) Saudi Arabia has just shot down multiple missiles fired by Ansar Allah (Houthis) fired at Riyadh. Ansar Allah is REALLY focused at this point on the King Khalid Airport and the East-West Pipeline.
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The fun thing about the Brazil elections is that it revealed the prevalence of confirmation bias in the elites. With these kind of discrepancy between the occasions where data checks out with preconceived desire and when it doesn't: youtu.be/6Srxg8kIvQo?is=fEJx… Thanks for having attended my TED talk. @TheMichaelEvery @BaldingsWorld @DataRepublican @pietercleppe
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Richard Field retweeted
It doesn't resolve anything but letting some tankers out in exchange for payment gives everyone involved some much needed cash....
Lot of mediation efforts (Saudi, UAE, and Qatar) for “temporarily” opening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for one time payments to the Iranians. How does this resolve anything?
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The risk is more of deflation, where consumption falls despite lower prices. Rates come down but companies are unwilling to invest as they cannot see future returns. The burden of restoring economic growth is fiscal policy, but high deficits preclude aggressive spending. Lower
“a bursting AI bubble would be a much bigger shock to the economy than the bursting IT bubble at the end of the 1990s that brought us to the edge of a liquidity trap. Yet the Fed has much less room to cut rates now than it did then: the current Fed funds rate is only 4 percent. So if huge AI spending is a bubble, and that bubble bursts, I can’t see how the U.S. can avoid plunging into a liquidity trap — a situation in which the Fed simply lacks the tools to get us out of a slump. If this should happen, the economy is likely to remain depressed for years.” -@paulkrugman
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Richard Field retweeted
Warum investiert Audi Milliarden in Georgia, USA, während es in Ingolstadt und Neckarsulm über 7000 Stellen abbauen will? Grund sind die fünf apokalyptischen Reiter der deutschen Geschäftswelt: Energiekosten, Lohnnebenkosten, Steuern, Bürokratie und Regulierungen. Obendrauf kommt eine vollkommen unberechenbare Politik, die jeden Tag einfach nur so zum Spaß komplette Technologien verbieten oder fordern kann. In Deutschland sind durch die Regierung schon viele Technologiezweige fast vollständig ausgerottet worden, in denen wir oft Weltspitze waren, bis die Politik diese absichtlich zerstört hat. Kernenergie, Fracking, Magnetschwebetechnik, Gentechnik, chemische Industrie, Pharma, Biotech usw. Die Autoindustrie ist nur die nächste einer langen Reihe. Was in der Diskussion gerne vergessen wird: Die Autoindustrie, das ist nicht das Audiwerk in Ingolstadt. Das sind auch die unzähligen deutschen Zuliefererbetriebe, von denen viele bereits pleite sind! Und jeder von denen ist oft Herz- und Wohlstandbringer einer Kleinstadt, die ohne diesen langsam verarmt. Das ist nicht „der Globalismus“ oder die Chinesen oder sonst eine unkontrollierbare Kraft, gegen die wir kaum etwas tun können. All diese Technologielinien wurden mit voller Absicht und mit aller Kraft von unserer eigenen Regierung zerstört und aus dem Land gejagt mit 100%iger Unterstützung der MSM-Presse, die das Ganze vorantreibt.
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Richard Field retweeted
Brazil’s Lula has just got another four years of a mandate to continue asking himself the same question every night. Together with the DragonBear amid a new Cold War against the US.
Remember when Brazil’s Lula once said: “Every night, I ask myself why all countries have to base their trade on the dollar. Why can’t we do trade based on our own currencies?” This “dream” involves Russia and China to make it happen within BRICS+.
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Richard Field retweeted
When will Anthropic be prosecuted under hacking laws?
BREAKING: Anthropic reveals Claude accessed Georgia voter information without human authorization, just days before the midterm elections.
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Richard Field retweeted
Honestly never thought I would see this in my time. The region at large is now understanding that they have to solve their own problems, and that has been long overdue. Many may disagree with me, but, if something comes out of this meeting, these are real political points gained for Iran (if, big if, any resulting "agreement" can actually hold and not be like the MoU).
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Richard Field retweeted
Deregulation of what? They need to adapt to a big increase in water costs/lower availability, the current spike in fertilizer costs, still tariffs causing higher prices for equipment and shortages of farm workers. Can’t see what deregulation they need..
#macro #California #thread I conclude California citrus and agriculture have reached a not-great tipping point. This is very bad news for the United States and the world. Deregulation would help a lot... but it won't happen. Expect fruit to cost 2x to 3x in 2027. /f
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Richard Field retweeted
A year ago I wrote: 'AI didn't take your job. Offshoring did.' This week a former AmEx engineering director alleges roles were shifted to India through staffing firms while the company talks about AI readiness. I'd rather not be right about this one. But here we are.
A year ago yesterday, I wrote: “AI didn’t take your job. Offshoring did.” A year later, I have even less patience for the corporate explanations. In 2022, it was overhiring. Then restructuring. Now it’s AI and efficiency. 🙄 Companies are still eliminating positions in the US while building out similar capabilities offshore… Of course AI is changing the workforce. But it’s also become a remarkably convenient explanation for decisions that were being made long before generative AI entered the conversation. I’d pay considerably more attention to the workforce data than the corporate narratives.
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Not every chokepoint needs the same fix. Build alternative capacity for persistent dependencies; use inventories, supplier redundancy and flexibility to absorb temporary shocks. Read more: bit.ly/4kh6UAE
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Richard Field retweeted
The rapid fall of the UK economically is just stunning. Repeatedly shooting itself in the foot year after year with Labour leading the list for dumbest people on earth.
Britain sure is in a tough spot. 28% of their debt is inflation linked. meaning as inflation increases, Britain has to pay more interest on that debt. This puts them in the tough spot. 1) Scenario 1. Strong growth. Inflation continues to increase aggressively, resulting in increasingly more tax revenues going towards debt interest payments. 2) Scenario 2. Recession. Inflation declines, yet so too do tax revenues from slower growth resulting in more of the tax-take going towards debt interest payments. The World is at the end of an 80-year debt binge, enabled by a 40-year low-rate-cycle. Math is undefeated.
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Richard Field retweeted
The largest pension fund in the US just cut its Mag 7 exposure by 26%! Calpers, the $640B giant, is rotating out of Big Tech. Its view is that markets are concentrated in a handful of over valued names. Hedge funds sold first. Pension funds are following.
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$AXP: 3,500 jobs. About 5% of AMEX. Officially it's about agility and getting ready for AI. A former engineering director says there were years of 'silent layoffs' first, with roles quietly moved to India through staffing firms. Agile. Sure. 🙄
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#macro #California #thread I conclude California citrus and agriculture have reached a not-great tipping point. This is very bad news for the United States and the world. Deregulation would help a lot... but it won't happen. Expect fruit to cost 2x to 3x in 2027. /f
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Great example of concentrated benefits and distributed costs is opaque securities. Wall Street firms benefit when investors don't have the info to accurately price the securities and overpay. The many investors lose as they take on more risk for less return than they expect.
Public choice predicts that the benefits and costs of institutional arrangements fall on different people. Benefits go to the few who control the arrangements and who spend heavily to keep them, while the costs spread across a population that has little ability to organize, so the arrangements last even when the total cost exceeds the benefit. #ncpol
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Richard Field retweeted
Public choice predicts that the benefits and costs of institutional arrangements fall on different people. Benefits go to the few who control the arrangements and who spend heavily to keep them, while the costs spread across a population that has little ability to organize, so the arrangements last even when the total cost exceeds the benefit. #ncpol
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Richard Field retweeted
GOLDMAN: “.. we are starting to see clearer signs that the AI impact is spreading beyond the technology sector. .. the share of US firms that have adopted AI in regular business functions now shows a statistically significant negative correlation with employment growth ..”
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Richard Field retweeted
This paper answers why confident idiots run the world. Cornell University published a psychological paper that explains every terrible boss, every loud influencer, and every broken corporate hierarchy. It’s called “Unskilled and Unaware of It.” they tested participants across logic, grammar, and humor to measure the gap between actual performance and self-perception. And the results are wild. participants scoring in the bottom 12th percentile consistently believed they were operating in the 62nd percentile. they were not lying. they were literally incapable of recognizing their own incompetence. the paper revealed a brutal paradox: the exact skills required to master a domain are the exact same skills required to accurately evaluate your own competence in that domain. if you lack the skill, you inherently lack the cognitive capacity to realize you are failing. this creates a dangerous systemic loop. the incompetent are blessed with absolute, blinding certainty. their brain protects them from their own ignorance, allowing them to speak first, demand authority, and never second-guess their decisions. meanwhile, the actual experts suffer the exact inverse. top performers in the study consistently underestimated their rank. because a task was easy for them, they falsely assumed it was easy for everyone else. they hesitate. they obsess over nuance. they assume they have nothing unique to add. we are biologically wired to confuse confidence with competence. the loudest person in the room gets promoted, gets funded, and gets the microphone, not because they know what they are doing, but because they are physically incapable of seeing what they don't. the only defense mechanism is building systems that stop rewarding absolute certainty and start demanding proof of work.
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