More ant. Less grasshopper. Dad to 4 great kids & Sp🅰️ceMob clueless cult member
Joined June 2013
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I was assigned more shares again this morning. These are CSP LEAPs that I sold over a year ago, that are now being exercised.
Nothing for over a year, and now 10 contracts exercised within the last week. It’s anecdotal, sure, but this is more evidence of capitulation (even though it won’t show up in any chart).
Typically, put holders would simply sell their put at a gain during/after a drawdown. In these cases, they are exercising the puts to outright sell their $ASTS shares, more than a year before expiration. Folks are desperate for liquidity.
$ASTS Further signs of capitulation - since we visited the $40's post SpaceX acquisition of Grain Management spectrum, I have added 800 shares - via exercises on my CSPs. 4 contracts last Friday and another 4 this morning.
Folks are looking to get liquidity any way they can. Maybe I'm just a glutton for punishment, but this is fine with me! Hope more of my CSPs get exercised in the coming days!
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I’ve been thinking about how the sources of alpha have evolved over time.
1950s/60s: Information arbitrage. Buffett could uncover deeply undervalued businesses by studying financial statements and looking where few others bothered.
1970s/80s: Analytical edge. Understanding business quality, competitive advantages and long-term compounding before these concepts became widely appreciated.
1990s/2000s: Technology and data. Quantitative strategies, computing power and systematic exploitation of market inefficiencies.
2010s: Information became increasingly democratized. The internet, financial databases and sophisticated screening tools made traditional analytical advantages harder to sustain.
2020s and beyond: AI is rapidly commoditizing information gathering, financial analysis and more broadly, intelligence.
My suspicion is that today’s edge increasingly lies in the ability to endure volatility (both mentally and financially) without abandoning a sound thesis. To look wrong for extended periods while waiting to be proven right.
The edge of today may be patience. It’s less about having the funds or the stomach to buy the downturn, and more about structuring your mind and finances so that you don’t sell it.
Factor and sector rotations off of day to day and often conflicting data points have been a hallmark of the 2026 market. Not sure if its algos or just heavy retail participation or both.
But I would say this: stop reacting to the daily data points - especially during earnings. It's stupid and a recipe for getting chopped into oblivion. While earnings reports are useful for directional trends on sectors, every company is different. Obviously. And different things impact quarters.
To wit - its Thursday.
Sunday night: AI trade over.
Monday after Anthropic S1 out: Oh there's a healthcare TAM here and inherent operating leverage on compute, buy AI!
Tuesday: AI stable, sell $SPOT!
Weds: Send AI
Weds PM: $GOOGL sucks, puke it, its over. Buy $META (why? idk). $NOW sucks puke it. Capex peak in sight (in line with consensus) puke AI. $MSFT good, buy it.
Thurs: AI over, software over buy $SPOT. $MSFT good but its AI and software, sell it.
Try and have an investment view anchored in what you believe to be confirming data points you expect to see in coming weeks, months, years. Hedge tactically as the data points inevitably aren't linear. Barbell core investments with tactical trades to hedge and take advantage of the rotational chop. Such trades are best in highly liquid securities. But if you trade like a bipolar lunatic - much like the market has traded - you will not do well.
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The blue field shows the ramp up of the constellation at a production & launch rate of 4 per month.
It’s my current floor estimate of output capacity from observing gating item input rate june-nov at at least that pace. (Might be higher if there are add’l sources of those items). Might also be lower if other constraints are bottlenecks, namely testing / TVAC. But I think ~4/mo is fair / accurate.
The yellow field shows an additional ramp up during 2027 of adding 2+2 per month on top of that. Also reasonable to assume as they’re targeting 6 currently and are ramping beyond that.
As can be seen production cadence together with orbital dwell time decides ultimate constellation size.
Therefore production rate and ramp up decides not only when the product comes to market, but also together with dwell time the ultimate scale of the business. Size of fleet.
$ASTS
However, what exact month they’re launched on, if for example 3 satellites or 6 sit and wait a few weeks for next launch, is ultimately of zero importance to the things that matter.
Please chill with “launch delays” on weekly timeframe. Production rate on the monthly timeframe is what matters along with orbital dwell measured in years. 3 sats sitting a few weeks at Astrotech is just noise not signal.
Launch will be there for those with cash and AST has that.
A few conclusions can be made. As for example: To keep cranking out satellites while in parallel setting up new shops for more production capacity might be a good idea.
You don’t want the existing production line to pause to field new versions, but rather use new versions as an opportunity to expand the overall production footprint and overall constellation size.
We can see new AST production sites popping up all over Midland to that effect.
Another revelation is how important the long orbital dwell time is. The graph shows 7 years. AST satellites believed to live 7-10 years. So 7 is conservative.
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$ASTS: SpaceMob has confirmed 8x composite rings have arrived in Midland, TX 🫡
Another shipment of 8 structural crates reportedly arrived in Midland today aboard an Antonov.
AST SpaceMobile’s supply chain is moving.
Midland is where the magic happens. 🚀 $ASTS
#ASTSpaceMobile #BlueBird #ASTS
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BREAKING: Short interest in the Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QQQ, is up to ~82 million shares, its highest since March 2023.
Over the last several weeks, this figure has surged +18 million shares, or +28%.
Year-to-date, short interest in $QQQ has nearly doubled.
Meanwhile, short interest in the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, has declined -30 million shares since March, to ~92 million shares, near its lowest in at least 5 years.
By comparison, during the 2022 bear market, short interest peaked at ~90 million shares for $QQQ and ~180 million shares for $SPY.
Short interest in tech is very high right now.
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Apparently $ASTS lost some (not most, that’s the market, but some) shareprice due to waiting for launch an extra 5 weeks and 5 days post production of last batch.
I have held AST for more than 5.5 years.
And so this “delay” registers as 2% of the timeline.
And putting a launch or two worth of BlueBirds on the shelf for a few weeks changes exactly nothing on that timeframe.
Launch will catch up soon enough and time to full constellation hasn’t changed a minute due to this. People should therefore chill out a bit and remain focused on the price.
Can’t freak out one week that launch is more plentiful than production only to freak out over the opposite next week. It’s not healthy.
It’s perfectly normal in the space industry to sit and wait for launch multiple months and routinely (= more often than not) launches slip by days to weeks for operational reasons.
Man up.
$ASTS $SPCX: 🚨The next Falcon 9 launch out of Florida now has a date -- November 29 at around 11 AM EST for the @northropgrumman Cygnus NG-25 resupply mission to the International @Space_Station.
The "6 week pause" is scheduled to terminate on November 29.
This is according to Ben Cooper's Launch Viewing Guide, which I view as the most reliable launch manifest other than seeing the date directly published by @SpaceX or their customer.
After this launch, @AST_SpaceMobile has BB14-16 ready to go and waiting at @AstrotechSpace so hopefully AST's mission is soon after (TO BE CONFIRMED). And even more hopefully AST will have BB17-19 shipped and waiting for its launch as well. 🤝
launchphotography.com/Launch…
😂 😂 😂
Tim's line that belief in AST ever delivering useful service "ebbs away" is pure bullshit. They just locked in intermittent coverage targets for US/Canada/Japan/UK/Saudi by year-end. 13 BlueBirds flying, production through BB50, 3k+ US cells live, 60+ gateways, 60+ MNO partners covering 3B subs, Europe LOI from the big four, Brazil spectrum approvals. Partners aren't walking. Skeptics who keep moving the goalposts look increasingly full of it.
Great reminder
If you feel like you're falling behind in life, trading, or your career, remember this.
We're all on our own journey, but we're not driving the same vehicle. Our health, our minds, our past, and everything we've been through affect how fast we can move.
Stop measuring your progress against someone who hasn't travelled the same road as you. ❤️
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$ASTS: This story is making the rounds so I am going to address it: floridatoday.com/story/tech/…
On October 21, SpaceX VP Kiko Dontchev stated that SpaceX has a 6 week gap before the next Falcon 9 launch out of Florida, reason being for prep for Starship's debut in Florida. The 6 week gap aligns with Ben Cooper's manifest noting a "late November" launch for the Northrop Grumman Cygnus NG-25 mission, so this should be the next F9 launch being referenced by Kiko Dontchev.
What this means for @AST_SpaceMobile:
+ BB14-16 are at Astrotech integrating for launch, and will be ready to go as soon as SpaceX Falcon 9 can launch them probably in December.
+ Why did AST ship if they don't have a launch? In my view it's one or both of two reasons: (1) AST was blindsided by SpaceX's sudden pause and/or (2) AST shipped to make room at their factory
+ This 6 week gap explains AST's silence on launch date PR. Their hands are literally tied.
+ Note that this Falcon 9 pause is not unique-to-ASTS as it impacts all Falcon 9 launches out of Florida, although you could make an argument that AST's payload is really the only one being impacted by this pause. That being said, I don't know the status of other Falcon 9 payloads that may or may not be impacted. Prep for Starship is a good excuse/reason though but yes it is unfortunate that AST's launch is being impacted.
+ How AST manages the narrative from here will be key, whether they do it with an interim update now or wait for the Q3 earnings call on November 9. The best thing for us shareholders and sentiment would be if AST can signal that production is going well and batches are continuing to get done and stockpile for a more rapid launch cadence starting in December when Falcon 9 returns to operation in Florida.
--> Note that if AST's production is going well in the background, then I think this pause from SpaceX helps explain the unusual gap between BB11-13 and BB14-16. And as mentioned in bullet 3 above, this explains the weird comms from AST surrounding BB14-16 batch.
--> Astrotech should have plenty of room to accept more BlueBirds if we can ship another batch or two while we wait for SpaceX to resume F9 operations in Florida.
In adjacent/related news, our boots on the ground are reporting that more shipping containers are arriving in Midland soon, which is a positive sign for more shipments coming in the near term: teapawt.org/DanteePacheco/status/2…
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VERIZON RULES OUT MVNO DEAL WITH SPACEX
During their earnings call, the following was noted
"I will say, and I'll repeat it again, that there are no back doors to any of our MVNO agreements, and I see absolutely no benefit whatsoever to extending an MVNO deal to any satellite provider. I don't buy into the idea of this prisoner's dilemma. That's ridiculous.
There is no benefit to Verizon extending an MVNO deal. Um, and, and we look forward to being able to, for six years to finally punch back. And we'll punch back hard when that happens."
$ASTS $SPCX $VZ $TMUS $T
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The AST SpaceMobile network is taking shape, in orbit and on the ground.
Today, over 60 gateways are in various stages of completion, installation and planning worldwide.
Initial, intermittent coverage targeted before year-end 2026 in the U.S. and other key markets around the world.
A new layer of connectivity, designed to connect directly to the smartphones people already use.
🇺🇸 📶🌎📱
#ASTSpaceMobile #ConnectingtheUnconnected
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$ASTS: 🚨🇧🇷 BRISANET, UNIFIQUE AND IEZ! SIGN COMMERCIAL AGREEMENTS WITH AST SPACEMOBILE TO OFFER DIRECT-TO-DEVICE SERVICE THROUGHOUT BRAZIL OVER 700MHZ SPECTRUM
BRISANET SERVIÇOS DE TELECOMUNICAÇÕES S.A.Publicly held CompanyCorporate Taxpayers ID (CNPJ/MF) n° 04.601.397/0001-28Company Registry (NIRE) 23.3.0004573-4CVM Code: 27.693MATERIAL FACTCOMMERCIAL AGREEMENT WITH AST SPACEMOBILE
Brisanet Serviços de Telecomunicações S.A. (B3: BRST3) ("Company" or "Brisanet"), in accordance with Article 157(4) of Law No. 6,404, dated December 15, 1976, and in accordance with CVM Resolution No. 44, dated August 23, 2021, hereby informs its shareholders and the market in general that, together with Unifique Telecomunicações S.A. and lez! Telecom, it has signed a Commercial Agreement with AST SpaceMobile to offer mobile satellite broadband services (also known as Direct-to-Device-D2D) throughout Brazil.
Regional mobile operators will make available the 700 MHz band radio frequencies they hold and will be responsible for investing in the infrastructure needed to connect their mobile networks to AST SpaceMobile's satellite constellation via ground gateways.
The collaboration aims to enable voice calls, broadband data, and video streaming directly on standard smartphones, without any modifications, eliminating the need for specialized equipment, software updates, or apps. By integrating satellite connectivity into its existing mobile network, the company aims to expand coverage wherever people live, work, and travel, allowing customers to stay connected even when they are out of range of terrestrial networks.
The initiative reinforces the commitment of regional operators to expand connectivity throughout the country and complements the investments they are already making to expand their terrestrial networks.
According to José Roberto Nogueira, founder and CEO: "The partnership with AST SpaceMobile complements our network and allows us to extend connectivity beyond the reach of our terrestrial infrastructure, offering customers access to voice and mobile broadband services in more locations using the smartphones they already own; this secures Brisanet's place in the future of connectivity."
The final details of the agreement are still being negotiated, and the transaction is subject to certain conditions. The Company will keep the market informed of the transaction's progress and any new developments.
Pereiro/CE, October 23, 2026
Luciana Paulo Ferreira
Investor Relations Officer
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Down so bad I'm asking chat what the average net worth of people my age is to feel better 😭😭
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$ASTS fwiw said this back in August (quoted post). Major support here ~$38, but $33 and $31 are two more major levels worth watching if we fail to see seller exhaustion soon.
*NFA
$38 would be the ugly move and that would fill a gap from from September 12, 2025 as well as test the 2024 high set in August. I would expect that to be a very strong support. The concern is if tax loss harvesting kicks in and takes it even lower into end of the year effectively unwinding the entire 2025 markup, with buyers returning as early as January and more so in March 2027
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Crude oil continues to decline and has established a bearish H&S pattern.
I expect further price declines as more oil hits the market and passes through the SoH.
Yields continue to decline as well.
The market is looking past the Iran war conflict and is focused on the midterms now.
Historically, markets take off prior to the midterms and run hard the rest of the year following the election.
This macro environment should be a great setup for high beta to have a massive rally going into the end of the year given how much they've sold off the past few months.
GLTA and NFA...
$RKLB, $ASTS, $QS, $ETH
