I think Ds probably get the Senate narrowly, but I have very wide confidence intervals.

There have been just 27 nonpartisan House district polls released all cycle. 80% of what's out there is released by campaigns to shape their preferred narrative. There's a place for somewhere that covers these races more deeply even if it's at the expense of breadth.

Interesting Astra safety guardrail not in Opus/Fable.

Last night, we recorded our largest ever live audience for our coverage of SC and WI. Just on the two main platforms we streamed on we had 1.4 million views during the livestream, with nearly twice as many catching up after or watching shorter videos from it. We started these with TN-7 last December and a bet that there’s an underserved audience out there that wants to see and understand every twist and turn as the results take shape on election nights. You have proven us more right than we ever could have imagined. These are astonishing numbers. I know I do a lot of promoting it on here and it probably gets annoying for those who follow me. But we’ve had to get the word out somehow; I hope you understand. To those who’ve been watching, thank you for helping us build a brand new election night experience. To those who’ve haven’t (or who don’t know anything about it - spreading the word is still a challenge), you’ve been missing out on a lot of fun - I hope you’ll give us a try. See you next Tuesday.

UPDATE: There will be a very long delay to the Milwaukee upload. Five of the USB sticks were missing results from the election. Election officials have to go back to the absentee facility to get the results again.

DDHQ's 2026 forecast: -House: Democrats have 3 in 5 shot of winning -Senate: GOP has just shy of 3 in 5 shot at winning House forecast may surprise some. But redistricting & closer generic ballot has reduced D chances of majority. See link below for more.

Guys, the one-in-a-trillion # really is derived from a very specific set of assumptions: All the ballots are deposited at once and we randomly sample from them as we go. That's the assumption underlying all the math. That's also not how ballots work, anywhere. 1/

200 staffers for a House primary campaign!

Can Osborn hold his rural numbers while improving in blue-leaning Douglas (Omaha) & Lancaster (Lincoln) counties? Osborn ran behind Harris in some precincts in those places. You can find trends like these in the NEW national precinct map on DDHQ Votes: votes.decisiondeskhq.com/pre…

If there's a House wave, it'll be much more about Ds beating incumbents than flipping open seats Of 54 open seats, just 8 are in districts where Trump got btwn 46-54% of the vote (the most competitive zone). Smaller % than House as a whole