Widge retweeted
God bless y'all.
If you actually see this, we probably ain't gonna make a difference, but we can at least sleep at night. Heroes.
Godspeed.
Widge retweeted
One more thing on this topic, all the green energy and nuclear power in the world is not gonna drive a truck across a country until that truck is electric and charging from a supercharger. Until that happens, diesel is the only way objects move around the world once they make it off the boats and trains.
Widge retweeted
Up for a chill afternoon at the community pool? The noise, natural gas odor and awesome view guarantee a good time.
@TravisREMindset
@UnicusResearch
Widge retweeted
Inflation up, gold down, Spanish pop and a midnight run through the straits of Hormuz with @TgMacro on his Macro Dirt podcast: youtu.be/qkvup-an2fM?is=OZbk…
Widge retweeted
Inflation is Still the Problem
Rational Dissent Episode 014
Post-COVID structural shifts like deglobalization and tariffs have permanently eliminated the cheap goods deflation that previously offset services inflation, leaving the U.S. settled in a 3% inflation world where a 5% nominal growth rate justifies matching 5% interest rates.
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Available on YT, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Overcast, etc.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction: Inflation Reality vs. Consensus
02:22 Nominal GDP Framework and 5% Yields
06:36 Core PCE, China, and the End of Goods Deflation
11:15 Protectionism, Tariffs, and the BYD Example
15:02 Why We Are Stuck in a 3% Inflation World
23:38 Rising Inflation Volatility and Remote Work
28:13 Monetary Policy: Why the Fed Must Focus on Nominal GDP
32:37 Closing Remarks
Widge retweeted
While at Texas, Steve McMichael filled in at kicker and went 8/10 on extra points and 2/3 on field goals. Then he won a Super Bowl, joined the Four Horsemen, got ejected from Wrigley Field by Angel Hernandez for calling him blind, and made the Hall of Fame. That’s a career.
Widge retweeted
Cheap on paper for a reason. Capital misallocations, profits are fragile, & the future of autos rewards scale & software execution. That is not in Ford’s wheelhouse. Avoid.
Widge retweeted
AI Agents are now accessing people's bank accounts and transacting independent of user instructions...what could possibly go wrong?
Widge retweeted
a friend in Connecticut- was given the option to lock in a $5.50/gal heating oil price (a $150 one time premium)
she believed what she’s hearing in the news-the price was going to come down
told her to lock it asap- 1 week later it was $6.50/gal with a $250 premium lock
Widge retweeted
Do commodities (other than crude) still matter xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1mxPaZoBl…
Widge retweeted
Important point
1% of companies represent 90% of AI spending.
Of that 90%, 80% of this spend are from unprofitable VC backed companies.
So, roughly, $0.70-75 of every dollar of AI spending right now comes from AI companies spending VC investment dollars.
As a result, the revenue quality in AI is currently poor. This happened in previous cycles as well, like cloud when early users of AWS were mostly venture backed startups.
The thing, though, is that before AWS could scale and pull thru GCP and others as legitimate cash machines, there were a few clearing events to sort out these brittle revenues.
This is the extrapolation of Ken’s point. We will need to transition from speculative AI spending to consistent, reliable spend that shows up in public market earnings reports.
This hasn’t happened yet because most of the breathtaking revenue growth comes from LPs investing in VC funds who then send it to startups.
Widge retweeted
There’s a reason the first thing the oligarchs do is buy a newspaper megaphone or some other media outlet…gotta keep the pitchforks and torches crowd marching in the other direction.
Widge retweeted
On July 7th, Brad Gerstner told every American family to put their money in the stock market at the top of the AI bubble.
Meanwhile, he was selling...
Widge retweeted
Fuel oil is up 15.3% month-over-month, and gasoline is up 9.1%. At some point, the things we "have to have" will get so expensive that the things we "want to have" may actually start to go down because nobody has enough money left over.
Full report: peakprosperity.pulse.ly/wo6b…
Widge retweeted
Pending Sales down -11.3% YoY
Redfin reporting most cancelled sales since Covid at 14.5%
Builder results in 7 days, but sentiment at 2012 levels
As foreclosures (forced sales) ramp and elective sales retreat the nat'l median home sales price will come under add'l pressure
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